El Fuerto's Cinderella Previews

As an avid fan of college basketball who counts down to March every year, if I had to pick my favorite part of March Madness, it would probably be Bill Raftery's voice at 12:00 on the first Thursday. But, watching a tiny school slay a giant is up there too. These are the games where 10 years later, when all the players are used car salesmen, people still tell stories about them. Northwestern St over Iowa. Hampton over Iowa St. Winthrop over Notre Dame. Vermont over Syracuse. These are chances for a team nobody has ever heard of to knock out a team with title expectations on the first day. And a chance to ruin a lot of brackets, also. With that said, here is El Fuerto's list of nobodys who could potentially win a game or two next week.

Murray St At 30-4 the Racers are looking at a potential 12 seed. What makes this team so dangerous is their wide array of scoring options. Their starting five averages 10.6, 10.5, 10.4, 10.4, and 10.3 points per game. And their sixth man averages 9.5. While the Racers lack a big name win, they took Cal to the wire when they were ranked number 12.

Oakland Grizzlies coach Greg Kampe made news when he announced that the Sweet Sixteen was in the future for his Oakland squad following their win over IUPUI Tuesday night. It sounds very crazy for a team whose biggest win came against a 5 letter acronym, but Summit teams have put up fights in the past. Just ask a Jayhawks fan if North Dakota St was a walk in the park.

North Texas The Mean Green roll into the Big Dance with 11 straight wins, and opponents should watch out for a tough backcourt consisting of Juniors Josh White and Tristan Thomas.

Siena The Saints are technically a low-major team, but their recent results say otherwise. Siena has bounced Vanderbilt and Ohio St (ONIONS! DOUBLE ORDER!) from the tourney in the past two years. This years's version boasts superstars Alex Franklin, Eddie Ubiles, and Clarence Jackson, as well as Ronald Moore whose big time shots knocked out the Buckeyes last year. Look for the Saints to continue their big game dominance and play into the second weekend this year.

East Tennessee St The Buccaneers finally seem to have things together and look to be a dangerous matchup for a National Title contender. Tommy Hubbard is playing well down the stretch, but what makes the Bucs dangerous is their defense. ETSU is 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, and will bring a lot of pressure on whoever they get pitted against.

El Fuerto’s NIT Projections

NOTE: Games updated through February 28
The Matchups:

1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (20-9) vs. 8 Lehigh Mountain Hawks (19-10)
4 St Louis Billikens (19-9) vs. 5 Miami Hurricanes (18-10)
3 Washington Huskies (19-9) vs. 6 Harvard Crimson (20-6)
2 Memphis Tigers (21-8) vs. 7 Akron Zips (22-8)

The Irish sneak into the NIT as the number 1 overall seed, but with NCAA caliber wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, they will likely need losses to UConn or Marquette down the stretch to seal their spot. Memphis is playing their best basketball of the year with 5 wins in their last 6 games, while the Billikens knocked off Dayton and Rhode Island in February. Both should be considered threats to make noise in the NIT. The U won all 14 nonconference games, but is in last place in the ACC at 4-10. Forward Quincy Pondexter of Washington is averaging just less than 20 ppg, and is arguably the best player in the NIT. Harvard is sitting right on the bubble, and another loss to an Ivy team not named Cornell could push them off. Lehigh is the current leader in the Patriot, but to make the NCAA, they will need to beat Lafayette who dropped a 90-spot on them last week. Akron takes on Kent on March 5 to decide the MAC regular season championship. This rematch of Kent’s 17 point home win in January may be the biggest MAC game since Wally Sczerbiak balled it up with Miami.

1 Dayton Flyers (19-9) vs. 8 Wofford Terriers (23-8)
4 William & Mary Tribe (20-9) vs. 5 Marshall Thundering Herd (22-7)
3 Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-11) vs. 6 Green Bay Phoenix (20-11)
2 Cincinnati Bearcats (16-12) vs. 7 Stony Brook Seawolves (21-8)

With all due respect to the Gophers, Tribe, Herd, and Phoenix, all eyes would be on a potential Dayton-Cincinnati matchup in the quarterfinals. Both the Flyers and Bearcats appeared to be NCAA caliber squads, but recent collapses changed that. The two local rivals haven’t met since November of 2005, and a Stephenson-Wright matchup would be pretty entertaining. However, both would have some tough roadblocks before they get there. William & Mary is a tough out, shown by their nonconference wins over Richmond and Maryland. Minnesota has a fine resume of their own, headlined by wins over Butler, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. Green Bay is a bubble team riding high on their overtime win over Wisconsin earlier in the season. Like Cornell, they are ok to lose to Horizon powerhouse Butler in the tournament, but probably no one else. Unless the Seawolves knock off Vermont for an unprecedented 3rd time this year in the American East tourney, they are set to take the conference’s automatic bid. Marshall has 22 wins, so even with a loss to UTEP on Tuesday should be in good shape provided they beat the Methodists on Saturday. Wofford won 10 straight to clinch the one seed in the Southern Conference, but is on a collision course with heated rival Furman in the second round.

1 Mississippi St Bulldogs (21-8) vs. 8 UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos (17-9)
4 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (19-9) vs. 5 Northwestern Wildcats (18-11)
3 Wichita St Shockers (23-8) vs. 6 Virginia Commonwealth Rams (20-8)
2 Seton Hall Pirates (16-11) vs. 7 Oakland Golden Grizzlies (23-8)

With a 3 game win streak going, the Bulldogs likely need a loss Wednesday against Tennessee and possibly an early exit in the SEC tournament to feel locked in. Seton Hall has a top-20 strength of schedule, but that really doesn’t mean much if you’re only going to win 2 and a half away games all year. (Why would you even play Monmouth on the road?) The Wildcats knocked off Purdue early in the year, but also lost to Penn St twice. Oakland currently leads the Summit, but perennial powers IUPUI and Oral Roberts are looking very strong down the stretch. The Gauchos will try to prove that Santa Barbara has more than just Shawn Spencer, however losses to Santa Clara, UC-Irvine, Cal St-Northridge, and Long Beach St (By 20) speak otherwise. Wichita St beat Northern Iowa, but punched their ticket to the Little Dance by losing to Utah St and Bradley down the stretch. The Rams are definitely on the bubble after finishing tied with Drexel for 5th place in the CAA, but gets major help from wins over Rhode Island, Old Dominion, and Richmond.

1 Arizona St Sun Devils (19-9) vs. 8 Belmont Bruins (19-11)
4 South Florida Bulls (17-11) vs. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders (16-12)
3 Mississippi Rebels (20-9) vs. 6 St John’s Red Storm (15-13)
2 Charlotte 49ers Rebels (19-9) vs. 7 North Texas Mean Green (21-8)

The Sun Devils snag the final one seed based on their number 54 RPI (remember this is the NIT) and 4 wins in their last 5 games. Charlotte and Ole Miss, once considered ones, have faltered down the stretch losing 4 of 5 and 5 of 8, respectively. St John’s snags the final at-large bid, fending off contenders Arizona, George Mason, North Carolina, and Virginia. Wins over NCAA teams Siena, Temple, and Louisville prove that the Storm can compete, and possibly play for the NIT title on their home court. North Texas has an awesome nickname and 8 straight wins, and is definitely capable of pulling off an upset or two. Texas Tech has dropped 5 straight, including a disgusting overtime loss against Nebraska. Likewise, USF has lost 4 of 6, but should be ok because they have wins over Pitt and Georgetown to lean on. Belmont can clinch a share of the Atlantic Sun with a win over Mercer on Thursday.

First Four Out (NCAA): Rhode Island Rams, St Mary’s Gaels, Virginia Tech Hokies, Illinois Fighting Illini

First Four Out (CBI): Portland Pilots, Arizona Wildcats, Illinois St Redbirds, George Mason Patriots

Bids by Conference
American East: 1
Atlantic Ten: 3
Atlantic Coast: 2
Atlantic Sun: 1
Big 12: 1
Big East: 5
Big Ten: 2
Big West: 1
Colonial Athletic: 2
Conference USA: 2
Horizon: 1
Ivy: 1
Mid-American: 1
Missouri Valley: 1
Pacific 10: 2
Patriot: 1
Southeastern: 2
Southern: 1
Summit: 1
Sun Belt: 1