*I will not mention specific stats from Spring Training because those stats mean didly shit towards predicting a players regular season stats. I can save reading too far into ST stats for a whole-nother post
Rotation (as of April 1, 2010)
1. Aaron Harang (2009: ERA-4.21/ W/L- 6-14/ SO- 142/ WHIP- 1.21/ IP- 162.1)
2. Johnny Cueto (2009: ERA-4.41/ W/L- 11-11/ SO- 132/ WHIP- 1.36/ IP- 171.1)
3. Bronson Arroyo (2009: ERA-3.84/ W/L- 15-13/ SO- 127/ WHIP- 1.27/ IP- 220.1)
4. Homer Bailey (2009: ERA-4.53/ W/L- 8-5/ SO- 86/ WHIP- 1.47/ IP- 113.1)
5. Undecided
It's funny how things have changed yet stayed the same with the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation from 2009 to 2010. The Reds' rotation came into the 2009 season with high expectations. Edison Volquez had just come off an excellent, All-Star year and looked like a good trade for Cincinnati even though Josh Hamilton tore it up for the Rangers in 2009 as well. Johnny Cueto looked primed to blossom into a stud. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo were both solid innings-eaters who you would expect to give you around 200 innings and an ERA in the low 4's.
It didn't quite work out that way, though, as Volquez had Tommy John surgery in August, and neither Cueto nor Harang reached the level anyone had expected they would achieve. Arroyo put up a respectable and winning 15-13 record with a 3.84 ERA, and the Reds finally saw Homer Bailey demonstrate some of that boatload of talent he put on display in the minors, going 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA over his last nine starts. Arroyo however did everything in his power in the first half of the season to knock the Reds out of contention by the time the All-Star Break rolled around. As bad as he played in the first half though, he played the complete opposite from July on and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball during that period. Arroyo's season was definitely a tale of two halves.
I remain optimistic about this years staff:
Harang, who posted a 6-14 record with a 4.21 ERA in 2010, will be the Opening Day starter for the fifth straight season. He wasn't as bad as his record indicates in '09 - he suffered from a lack of run support and defensive help last year - but the Reds hope the big right-hander can do a lot better than he did given his $12 million salary in 2010. Do not read into Spring Training, let's see what he does on Monday, he usually performs well in that setting. I 100% agree with Baker going with the Harangutang for Opening Day.
Cueto is still just 23 years old (shit same age as I am!), and unlike last season, did not pitch in winter ball this year (nor did he have the World Baseball Classic like last season). So there is hope that he will continue to show flashes of being an ace more often than not as he continues to develop. Take Cueto's stats up until July (which was the equivalent of August or September pitch count wise because of all the non-MLB innings he played in before April) and he is was a solid two for just about any team. (April-July: 8-4 record with a 2.69 ERA)
Arroyo is still a rubber-armed pitcher who will probably give you 200 innings with an ERA around 4.00 to 4.50. Say what you want about Bronson, but when you hand him the ball every fifth day, he will be kickin that leg high and giving the team a chance to win on a consistent basis.
Bailey will look to build on his late-season success from '09 and turn himself into the #1 or #2 pitcher the Reds have been hoping he would be. It's a staff full of possibilities that could be very good, but could just as easily be a big disappointment. I think Homer will be the Most Improved Player on this 2010 Reds roster.
The fifth starter has been one of the hottest and most competitive battles that I can remember in recent years. The two starting pitchers the race has boiled down to are the young guns: lefty Travis Wood and righty Mike Leake. Both options I would be more than happy giving the ball to at the end of the Red's rotation. They both have been sizzlin in the Arizona desert and hopefully they can bring that heat back to the Queen City. My prediction (and it's not a bold one by any stretch of the imagination) is that both guys start games for the Redlegs at some point during the season. Travis Wood was the Reds Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2009. He's proven over the course of a six month season, he can hurl it. On the Major League level? We won't know until he actually does it. My vote is for Wood to get the last spot. I would not however be upset at all if the Reds end up going with the hot hand of the spring and give Mike Leake the opportunity instead. He was the Reds #1 draft pick out of Arizona State. He would be the first player to have never played minor league ball and to go straight to the majors since Xavier Nady.
The bottom line here is for once, Dusty Baker will not have to decide between a washed-up crafty journeyman and an unproven, not MLB-ready kid who should be slamming Natural's in a college fraternity instead of vying for a spot on a Major Leage roster. Either way, he can't go wrong. Could he mess it up at some point in the season? ABSOFRICKENLUTEY. It's Dusty, as we all know, he's patented overplaying and under-developing young talent (ie. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, hopefully not Cueto and Volquez, and/or Leake and Wood). I am excited to see both of thes young hurlers pitch in Reds uniforms.
The one name not mentioned so far is Aroldis Chapman. It wouldn't be a complete breakdown of the 2010 pitching staff without mentioning arguably the ballsiest move by the Reds front office in 15 years. The 22-year Cuban defector was a highly sought-after free agent during the off-season whom the Reds managed to surprise just about everybody and sign. Some question the intelligence of spending $30 million on an unknown like Chapman, but the fact that the money is spread over 10 years lowers the risk of the deal dramatically for the Reds. It’s rare that a team like the Reds has a chance to outbid the league for a talent like Chapman, so when the opportunity presented itself, they had to take it. Chapman is reportedly throwing an easy 97 MPH this spring and his control has been better than expected, but even with those reports, Dusty has made the decision to start him down on the farm at the start of the season. He’s still fairly raw, and with the way the contract is structured, it actually makes sense for the Reds to hold him back in the minors for at least a year. Still, don’t be surprised if the Reds bring him up later this season, especially if they don’t get much production out of the 5th spot in the rotation.
I don't think I am going out on a limb in saying that I believe the 2010 Cincinnati Reds go as their starting pitching goes. Like you hear all the time, defense and pitching wins championships. Well we have a Gold Glover at three of our four infield positions and our pitching staff is the most legit it has been since 1995 (the last year the Reds made the Playoffs). Only time will tell though. I'm excited to see it in action.
Stayed tuned this weekend for an in-depth breakdown of the infield position players as well as the bullpen. As for Kevin Frey Wannabe, I'm over and out and wondering if there is a good meat substitute other than fish.
-MGBJr
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